Estimación del terremoto máximo posible y su intervalo de recurrencia en la Falla de Carrascoy (Murcia) para su implementación en el cálculo de la peligrosidad sísmica de la región

Abstract

Seismogenic source characterization in seismic hazard analysis of moderate activity areas is usually solely based on the seismogenic zone concept and the available historical records. However, the location of future big earthquakes (M>6) is always associated to major faults. In this work a methodological approach to estimate maximum earthquakes and mean recurrence intervals in faults where detailed paleoseismicity studies lack is presented. An example case (Carrascoy Fault) extracted from an extended work which comprises all the major faults in SE Spain is shown. The Carrascoy Fault is 32 km long and shows evidence of activity at least Upper Pleistocene. Slip rate is estimated in 0.54 m/ka. Seismicity distributes along the fault and surrounding areas. However, seismotectonic relations cannot be precisely stated due to the poor quality locations and the lack of seismic series. Considering the surface lenght of the fault a magnitude 6.8 maximum earthquake is estimated. According to the slip rate of the fault and making use of three independent methods the recurrence period of such an earthquake is estimated to range from 6,000 to 10,000 years